Falling Responsibilities and Rising Temperatures

by  Dhruv Mishra

The United Nation’s intergovernmental body, IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), issues its sixth assessment report on climate change. The report should set off alarm bells in the ears of world leaders, making them spring into action, forming new socio-economic policies to deal with the state of emergency we are in.

The UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres called the report a ‘Code Red’ for humanity, adding that it “must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy the planet.”

For India, observing the rise in temperatures globally, global warming trends are likely to result in an increase in annual mean precipitation over India, with more severe rains expected over the southern part of the country. As the target of keeping global warming below 1.5° Celsius, as stated in the 2015 Paris Agreement, seems unlikely to be met. Observing this trend, IPCC has recommended that countries should strive to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. India has not yet committed to a net-zero timeline.

India ranks 3^rd worldwide in greenhouse gas emissions but per capita emissions are much lower. On the other hand, the U.S. emitted nearly 9 times more greenhouse gases per capita than India in 2018.

Our coastline, measuring 7,517 km stands threatened by the rising sea levels. Across six Indian port cities – Chennai, Kochi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Surat, and Vishakhapatnam - million people will be exposed to coastal flooding if sea levels rise 50cm, according to one study that forms part of the IPCC report.

“With warming, we are seeing that there are especially varying patterns of change that are projected over the future. There is an intensification of the water cycle, which is going to affect the rainfall patterns... Change in the monsoon precipitation is also expected,” said Dr. Swapna Panickal, Scientist with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology at Pune and among the authors of the report. “While there isn’t much (scientific) model agreement on the changes in the heavy precipitation events, we can definitely say that hot extremes are projected to increase and cold extremes are projected to decrease in the 21st century,” she said.

Alok Sharma, COP26 President said in a statement: “The science is clear. The impacts of the climate crisis can be seen around the world and if we don’t act now, we will continue to see the worst effects impact lives, livelihoods, and natural habitats. Our message to every country, government, business, and part of society is simple. The next decade is decisive, follow the science and embrace your responsibility to keep the goal of 1.5C alive. We can do this together, by coming forward with ambitious 2030 emission reduction targets and long-term strategies with a pathway to net-zero.”

It seems like India too needs its own Greta Thunberg to stir a chain of immediate action, expecting improvements until the next report. There will be one stark difference between this report and the next: this is the last IPCC report to be published while we still have a chance of averting the worst ravages of climate breakdown.